The Shopping Cart Economist

Yes, I am screaming in my blog title this morning. I am screaming because I am fed up of reading articles by people who’ve probably never shopped smartly a day in their lives, and suddenly when it’s chic to write articles about how to shop on the cheap, these people have crawled out of the woodwork with BAD advice about how to save on groceries. There’s a story on Yahoo right now about saving on groceries and they are headlining this garbage advice like it’s the wonder cure to the world’s food problems. The solution? Buy generics.

GRRRR!!!!! If I hear that as a solution one more time I think I am going to go nuts. And the thing that really fried me was the authority for the article was from Consumer Reports! I wish these people would do a little better homework about how to save at the store. The advice is so bland and so poorly constructed. Those who are savvy with a coupon know that you can get branded goods at a better price if you watch the deals and stockpile coupons.

The other article that’s out there right now was by Brett Arends of the Wall Street Journal talking about stockpiling foods. First off, his stats on food trends are way off - milk, beef, and eggs are all really low and not reflective of the current state of food prices. Not sure where he yanked them from, but they weren’t right. His reasoning for food price increases was adaquate at best, but not remotely indicative of the true problems going on. And then his parting advice….stock up on Cap’n Crunch? Give me a break! And the guy comes right out and says he’s invested in Quaker. Come on, there are better things to stock up on.

I have yet to see an article really come out and give good advice about strategically saving money in what’s going to be a long run of bad food prices, with the exception of Liz Weston’s article on MSN a few weeks ago…..but then she actually took the time to interview folks who are authorities on the subject, and she researched her stats for her article. The rest of the articles I’ve seen have just been hype and garbage about buying generics and only shopping when you need to. A savvy shopper knows you shop when you don’t need anything at all so that you’re only buying the freebies and cheap stuff at the best price possible. It’s when you let your pantry run down that you’re more apt to overspend.

So, I’m ranting this morning. I’ve had it with these internet journalists and their waste of “ink” about how to save on food prices. Just hit Hotcouponworld or Organicgrocerydeals - the folks on either board will hook you up with the best advice and save you a bundle.

And please….before you fall for the “Buy Generic” hogwash that’s out there, do a little cross comparison….not every generic is cheaper than the branded item on an ounce per ounce or per unit basis. And not all of them are of the same caliber quality as the branded counter part. It’s always buyer-beware at the store….you just have to read to find the best prices and not fall for the hype you read!

For those that know me, they know I am not really much of a granola monkey (my term of endearment for my ultra-green friends). I’m doing all the baby steps to making life more green at my house, but it isn’t THE driving force behind my purchases.

However, what I do categorize myself as is an economic protectionist. It means I feel very strongly about things like government agencies buying from local producers and putting back those dollars back into the tax base from which their funding was generated. I also take that down to the individual level and look for ways to put local into my purchasing.

On a trip to Costco, I found myself extremely frustrated. I’m not a huge Costco shopper as it is, but there are some things I can get there for my kiddos’ lunches more economically than at the grocery store.

Going through the fruit aisle, I picked up some Tree Top Applesauce. They’ve moved into the organic market now for their individual cups. They were about .79c more expensive than the non-organic variety I’d bought on my last trip. Tree Top of course is headed out of Washington State (which is right next door to me) and so pretty darn local. Moving down the aisle, I picked up a container mandarin oranges manufacturered by Dole, another US company which of course had its origins in Hawaii. However, the fine print on the package for country of origin? China! Pick up the Festival brand….China.

I skipped on the canned mandarin oranges and moved on. With all the tainted products coming out of China, it just didn’t sit right to give my kids canned goods from China, where I can’t be certain that the quality or safety standards matched those of other producers from the US whose plants I’ve either personally walked through, or have known others who’ve visited and vouched for things like plant hygiene and safety. I wound up buying the fresh California Cuties instead for $6.49 for a 5# box. A better price than had I actually bought the canned variety and of course, there is less packaging waste in buying fresh produce over cans.

Fast forward to a trip down the fruit aisle at Albertsons. Every brand of canned mandarin oranges were packed in China. S&W, Delmonte, Dole, Store Brand, Geisha….there was no getting away from it. So, I was now inclined to look at the other fruits to see where they originated, and needless to say, I was pretty dismayed.

Pineapple was coming from the Phillipines and Thailand. Dole Mixed fruit and canned mangoes were also out of Thailand. Canned red grapefruit…from Turkey??? The Albertsons store brand labels didn’t even say where the fruit came from.

So what is the cost of fruit coming from overseas in a can? The same fruit we produce in the US? It’s a rhetorical question because I don’t really have an answer for you. I can imagine that some unforeseen costs are things like lost US jobs. Shuttering of once-viable US food production operations. Environmental costs of trucking Dole mixed fruit from South Africa to Oregon. Potential health costs where lack of food safety might pose a risk. Human capital costs of how workers in foreign plants are treated. Just to name a few implied costs of buying imported canned fruits.

Now, that’s not to say all canned fruit is coming from overseas. In fact, with the exception of the mandarin oranges, all the S&W Brands were packed in the US and many of the Del Monte varieties like mixed fruit were US branded as well. Oregon Fruit Company, right out of Salem, Oregon (and a 1/2 hour drive from my house)had many specialty fruits available that are grown in the Northwest. Ocean Spray was out of Massachusetts, and of course, there’s the good old California Raisins. The best canned fruit choices were pears and peaches for being produced in the US. And all the apple sauce was US-produced as well.

One thing that really bothered me though was a brand of organic fruit selling fruit varieties that we grow in the US. This brand however, was being packed and shipped from Sri Lanka. I thought part of the organic movement was to limit the carbon footprint of the things a company produced? I can’t imagine shipping from Sri Lanka is good for the environment, no matter how well the land was tended in an organic/sustainable manner.

So as you shop for canned goods, check the labels about where things are coming from. I’m going to stick to fresh pineapple from Maui at $3.99 a pineapple vs. the cans from Dole shipped from the Phillipines. It’s good economic policy that saves us all money in the long run.

Althought Myanmar (formally known as Burma) was not a large world exporter of rice, it did produce enough to support 1/3 of its population of some 47 million people. Annual exports of rice were very low. But 47 million people? That’s a lot of folks who need to be fed.

Myanmar produced 10 million tons of rice. The USDA estimates that at least 7% of the rice production is rendered useless, and that’s a low estimate. That’s a potential lowball of 700,000 tons of rice. My thoughts is that when all the debris is cleared, those numbers are going to go higher. The trouble is, the outcomes won’t even clearly be known until December when the late harvest should have been ready to bring in. Farmers had already planted fields for the December harvest.

Just to put this in perspective for you - if 700,000 tons of rice is lost, that’s 1,400,000 million pounds of rice. In 1 pound of rice is 11 services. So over 15 MILLION servings of rice are gone. That’s the supply for 15 MILLION meals.

So, what’s this going to do to the rice market? In an already tight demand/supply system for rice, we’ll see a small spike in rice prices. Currently, rice sits at over $19 per hundredth weight. At the store, rice is well over $1.00 per pound for conventionally produced rice. Rice from international sources will be sent over to Myanmar for relief efforts and it could be a while before they are ready to produce again in that region.

So, watch for continued outages throughout the summer, and a jump in prices again here. Once the depth of the Myanmar cyclone is understood, we’ll see another jump in price at the retail level for consumers.

Ok, so we’re not technically in a recession as per the true definition of recession. But tell that to many sectors of the marketplace, including retail, which is having the worst economic year of the previous 30 years.

We all know that food prices are up and moving. According to NPR, an economist who was on their show vocalized what I’ve been sharing with close friends for quite some time. His estimation is that we will not see food recover from market anomolies for at least SEVEN years. My own thought is closer to 10 years, and especially when you factor in unknown oddities like cyclones tearing up rice paddies in Myanmar.

So that all said, if organics have historically been more expensive than conventionally produced goods, how are people going to afford them now that food prices have shot through the second story??? (Note that I say story and not roof because I don’t believe we’ve even come close yet to rooftop prices yet).

Well, here’s the thing with organics. If you watch, you can find great deals. And if you have eagle eyes, you’ll notice that for some items, they are the same if not LESS than conventionally produced. Don’t believe it? Here’s an outtake of a recent shopping trip for me.

Black Beans

S&W brand organic canned black beans (15z)were $1.69 for organic compared to $1.49 for their own convention brand beans. Twenty cents for the organic over conventional was not a huge difference. But watch it. The store brand organic beans - $1.99!!! So .30c more a can for the generic over the branded variety. A quick check of the Coupon Database at Hotcouponworld showed me that there is also a $1.00 off 4 cans for S&W beans, bringing them down to $1.45 a can.

Ground Beef

Ground beef for organic typically comes in a 91/9 fat content mix, meaning that of the grind of meat, 9% is fat, the other 91% is beef. The assorted brands at Albertsons were $3.99 per pound. The conventionally produced beef in the butcher’s block for the same fat content mix? $3.99. Now, you can get higher fat content conventionally produced beef cheaper. The 85/15 was $2.99 and the 73/27 is about $2.49. But if you are interested in that leaner meat, there’s no price difference. In fact, Laura’s, an organic/natural brand, has a printable coupon that you can find at www.laurasleanbeef.com for $1 off a package, making the organic beef cheaper.

Coffee

Here’s one that will shock you. Albertsons new Wild Harvest organic coffee retails for $8.99 for a 10-ounce package or 89.9 cents per ounce. Starbucks and Seattle’s Best run for $10.99 for a 12-ounce bag or 91.6 cents per ounce. On sale however… the Wild Harvest brand is $6.99 today on sale, or 69.9 center per ounce. The sale price for Starbucks? 74.9 cents per ounce. The difference in the sale price of the organic to the regular price of starbucks is significant - a whopping 22 cents per ounce. But even if you compared sales prices, if you use a 12z bag per week of coffee, over a year’s time buying the organic would save you $32.00.

Then of course there’s the other end of the spectrum.

A gallon of Soy Dream soy milk purchased in four 32-ounce cartons not on sale, with no coupons is $13.56. Compared to a gallon of Organic Valley or Horizon milk at $6.99. Compared to conventionally produced milk at $3.69. $10 more for soy over regular milk is a little hard to stomach. Even the Kikkoman Pearl Soy Milk is tough to swallow at nearly $9 per gallon.

Lastly, the interesting thing about organics is that the producers are really micro and the stores are constantly changing the shelf set. It’s a boon for people who shop organic. Pay close attention to the clearance racks and you’ll find some really great deals. Today I got:

10 bottles of ketchup for .99c each
19 cans assorted tomato products for .49c each.

Total out of pocket was $19.31. Savings over conventional for the same items was about $25. Savings over the organic varieties for the new shelf set was $50. Either way, it’s a decent savings for something we’ll use up quickly at our house. They also had cartloads of organic beans and produce…all still in date…just changed for a shelf set.

Bottom line. Not everything organic is going to be better priced. And in a recession market, you’ve got to pay close attention. But if you’re into organics, the deals are there - you just have to find them and stick within your budget.

Happy Shopping!!!

I love my wine loving friends! I don’t drink wine but I have friends who adore the stuff. They lament to me about how wine prices have shot up as much as food prices and it’s getting harder and harder to get a good glass of wine on a budget. While I don’t drink wine, I do love to give it as gifts. With each baby we had, we gave away cases with our own label. And I love to get a good deal when I buy it for friends and family, so I spend a fair amount of time in the wine department as a shopper.

Not to fear - there are deals on wine to be had. You just need to look and be willing to try new brands and varieties.

Taking a walk through the wine department of Albertsons this morning, here’s what I found…

First off, if you’ve never seen a wine tag before, it’s time to acquaint you with these novel little pieces of paper that hang around the neck of a bottle (or can sometimes be found as a tear pad near the bottles). For some brands, the tag is an offer outside of the wine. Buy a bottle of X brand wine, get $1 off cheese or $3 off crab. It’s a great marketing technique, and those deals aren’t brand specific. In some states, you can even use the coupon without buying the wine due to state liquor laws. Another type of tag that you can find is rebate tags.

Wine rebates are simple to do. Here’s how they work. Buy the specified amount of bottles (I’ve seen anywhere from one bottle to 12 bottles) and you’ll get X amount of dollars rebated back to you as a check from the manufacturer. The checks come back relatively quickly. And since you can’t easily get the UPC code from the bottle, the form only requires a UPC to be filled in, and many rebates only require the receipt.

So let’s talk prices….

From some of the rebates I pulled this morning off the bottles, there’s some serious savings to be had. But you need to think bulk purchase!

Many stores offer a percentage savings for buying 6 or more bottles of wine. On average, it’s a 10% savings. At certain times of the year when wine gets really competitive (think Thanksgiving and Christmas) you can see specials that include a 20% savings off 6 or more bottles. They can be mix and match and the savings can also be used against sale prices.

So let’s start with Blackstone White Wine. The regular price is $11.99. It was onsale today for $8.99. There was a rebate for $3 for one bottle.

Six bottle price - $45.55 for 6 = $7.59 a bottle - a savings of 37%.

Edna Valley bottles were $13.99. They weren’t onsale today. With the rebate off for $12 for 6 bottles and the wine discount, the price per bottle comes down to $10.59 - a $20.40 savings versus buying them one bottle at a time.

Coastal Estates wine was normally $11.99 for a bottle of Cabernet. It was onsale for $7.99. The rebate for 6 bottles was $9. Factoring in the 10% discount, the price per bottle is now $5.69 - that’s like buying 1 bottle for regular price and getting another free - a 53% savings!

Robert Mondavi Chardonnay - $6.99 regular price but it was $5.99 this morning. 6 bottle price with a $7.50 rebate and 10% bulk savings was $4.14 per bottle - a 41% savings over full retail.

I could continue listing these out, but I think you get the point. Interestingly enough, the best value wines on my grocer’s aisle today? Wines from Australia!!! Alice White wines in all varieties from Chardonnay to Shiraz to Pinot Noir were all onsale for $5.99 per bottle from their regular price of $8.99 a bottle. With a bulk discount, the bottles fall to $5.39 without a rebate. In some instances, for the price at full retail with comparable brands/varieties is 25% less than wines being produced in the US. I find that interesting for the sheer reason that Australia has moved its agriculture economy from rice to wine grapes because grapes are more economical to produce in a drought with a higher net profit per acre. So while we suffer through high rice prices, at least we can console ourselves with inexpensive wine. My wino buddies assure me that the Alice White brand is comparable to brands being produced here in the US (Mondavi, Kendall Jackson, etc.).

So, important takeaways if you’re a backyard wine enthusiast….

* Buy in bulk and maximize the instore savings from stores chains like Albertsons, Safeway, Kroger.

* Keep your eyes peeled for those wine tags with rebates….it’s like getting free bottles in exchange for licking an envelope!

* If buying foreign produced products isn’t a concern for you (I still tend to buy US produced wines cause I’m a bit of a protectionist) then branch out and try those inexpensive Australian brands.

Your wallet will thank you all the while you still get to keep wine on the table amidst rising food prices for the rest of your meal!

With everything else going on in the marketplace, as much as I’ve wanted to get back to this series of the blog with ingredient tracking, I’ve been inundadated with other things to write about. But I am going to touch on the next ingredient on my list that speaks to why cheap food is no longer cheap.

Wheat. It’s in darn near everything from cereals to bread and even beverages. For years, it’s been a cheap filler, similar to corn. But if you’ve bought a bagel, donut, or loaf of bread in the last few months, you’ll see that your favorite brands have doubled in price.

So what’s going on with wheat prices and why should we be concerned about potential wheat shortages this summer?

Wheat across the globe has for years been a cheap commodity staple. When we owned a bakery 10 years ago, I could get a 50# bag of high quality baking flour for under $10 per bag. The price of a 50# bag of that same flour this week is over $30.

Flour at the store for run of the mill, personal consumption is $3.59 for a 5-pound bag. Traditionally, flour is a classic holiday loss leader. A 5# bag could be had easily for .99c per bag (.20c per pound) and as low as .79c per 5# bag for a generic store brand (.16c per pound). At this new record high, flour is now at .72c per pound. That’s a significant increase over the best sale price from just a year and a half ago.

You might not be feeling the pinch on the bulk bags of flour if you’re not a baker, but if your a bread consumer, you know it’s happening. The cheapest store brand bread right now in most markets is $1.67. You know the bag - it’s the white bread that falls apart as you spread peanut butter over it. Want a good hearty bread? $3.50 a loaf. Specialty artisan bread is reaching $5 per loaf!!! I paid $4.49 for a load of La Brea Roasted Garlic artisan bread the other day.

So why the increase?

If you’ve read some of the other blog entries here, you’ll know I’ve talked a bit about market pressures from corn. If you’re a farmer who can crank out corn for ethanol and fetch premium prices, why grow wheat? Well, at this point, wheat, which was only a few dollars a bushel as recent as 18 months ago, has actually climbed as high as $20 a bushel this year with no price cap in site. Why? World wheat stockpiles are at a 60-year low. And bad weather in wheat producing countries has put pressure on those stockpiles. Part of this low stocks is decreased production, but then increased demand in countries like India and China where the middle class there is consuming more meat (fed with grains like wheat) are making a huge impact in the availablity of wheat.

More troubling is that in Southeast Asia, parts of the middle east, and in some parts of Africa, a new strain of stem rust, a fungus that travels rapidly through the crop, is traveling through several countries in that region of the world. Stem rust has the capability to wipe out 90% of a crop. The current wheat stock grown in the world has no resistance to this new strain of an old fungus. The possibility for huge damage both to finances of wheat farmers and to food economies around the world is very real, and very frightening.

This summer, bakeries around the country are hearing from their suppliers that some of the specialty type flours are likely going to be unavailable or cost prohibitive.

Where does that leave American traditions like hotdogs at ballparks or hamburgers on the back deck? Plan on seeing high prices for buns, breads and baked goods. But also keep your eye on other wheat-based products. Cake mixes, hot and cold cereals, pasta, and other food staples that rely on wheat are going to jump. In my estimation, you can plan on seeing a 50% increase between now and the end of summer.

How do you counter this and save a few bucks?

Buy now. For those things that you like which rely on wheat as a main ingredient - get while the getting’s good. Albertsons has General Mills cereals on sale this week. Stock up on cereal, granola bars, and other wheat-based breakfast items while they’re a decent price. I think we’ll see a marked increase in cost for the back-to-school breakfast items in the fall, so if you can get some now, they have a long enough shelf life, you might be able to tide yourself over until January, when I think we’ll see some relief.

Utilize X off Y coupons (like $10 off $50) to save money on those items which you don’t have coupons for. Or use a prescription gift card coupon when you get a new or transfered prescription and take the freebie money and apply it towards your break and baking items.

If you use flour on a regular basis, keep your eye to the price tag and when you get the chance stock up. I am not a huge Costco fan, but club stores have the best deals on breads and flour right now without coupons. And of course, you can freeze bread and other baked items, so if you find a good price, stock and freeze it.

So, you’re not ready to commit to a major a major purchase yet with your economic stimulus rebate check? That’s Ok, not everyone is ready. For many people, self-preservation is a bigger factor in how they are going to spend their dollars.

If you’re going to use your rebate check on everyday purchases, you should keep your eye out for special deals being offered by grocery and big box retailers that will stretch your money.

Here’s an offer from Fred Meyer, a west coast chain that’s owned by Kroger. Buy a gift card in increments of $300, $600, $900, OR $1200 this week using your Fred Meyer Reward Card and they will add 10% to the value of the card. Seriously, where are you going to earn an instant 10% on your money? Not in any savings account.

Here’s the kicker! They also offer gas rebates, so you could take the extra 10%, use your card, buy gasoline, and not only pay less at the pump but use your free money with it! If you bought the $1200 gift card, that’s an extra $120 of FREE MONEY coming your way. Additionally, they have $4 generic prescriptions now, so if you have regular prescriptions that need to be filled, this is a huge advantage for savings.

Can you commit to using all your money in one store like that? Why not if they offer household goods, gasoline, and groceries - the three top items that American consumers will likely be buying this week.

And with instore ads like 1/2 gallon milk, OJ, or chocolate milk $5 for $5, you’re bound to find ways to save money on items you’re going to consume. You might as well get the extra bonus.

Albertsons, a national grocery chain, is offering $30 for every $300 incremental gift card purchase up to $1200 when you bring your stimulus check there to be cashed. Albertsons in some markets also has gas stations in their parking lots, and of course, Albertsons takes everyone else’s coupons so as a store to go spend money at, this could be a super place to spend your money. This week, they have General Mills cereals through Saturday May 10th, on sale $10 for $10. With a few coupons, you could really stretch those dollars utilizing your free money from the store for getting their gift cards. Factor in using coupons that are for $10 off $50 and the money lasts that much longer.

So if you’re struggling with how best to use these dollars for your family, pick up the local grocery ads and see what retailers in your area are doing to help you stretch your dollars. Free should be everyone’s favorite price!